South Sudan- Austerity or Normality?

We have spent the last week in South Sudan looking at the risks and vulnerability associated with the ongoing violence coupled with the Governments lack of income due to no oil based revenues and significant inflationary pressures.  Through this period there seems two clear, and perhaps even somewhat linked, possibilities:

Possibility 1.  Current austerity measures are not able to survive the next few months. This has the potential to lead to a wide range of problems including humanitarian challenges (some are mooting a 'disaster') and the likelihood that Government salaries are not able to be met. Inside the security forces this could be catastrophic, if soldiers and police pursued other sources of illegitimate income.

Possibility 2. Austerity measures actually do work..... after all South Sudan have, in reality, been managing tiny budgets for many, many years. That said, there is an increased and improved spending appetite inside the Government that will need to be moderated.

One thing is clear. The tiny capital of Juba is conjuring much as we close up on the first anniversary of independence.

Sudanese Spiral- Rhetoric or Reality?

Our team in Juba have watched carefully as instability has developed into conflict in Heglig. We have now witnessed this spread laterally along the oil band. The base of insecurity is spreading longitudinally. The question is whether we will see a latitudinal movement. Here's our thoughts.....

Sudan President Omar Al Bashir's recent (overnight) comments to 'liberate' South Sudan are likely more rhetoric than substance. He is well aware that the international community are looking for an East African 'hero' in a sea of regional instability. The Republic of South Sudan in many ways must be that hero. To that end there is only a remote chance that, even if Bashir wanted to, the Sudanese military would not be able to cross the threshold into Juba. The international community would likely stand (mostly invisible) behind the Republic of South Sudan. Think Libya.
 
President Bashir's commented: 'Either we end up in Juba or they end up in Khartoum. The old borders cannot take us both'. 


The reality is that neither is likely. The South has not the capabilities nor intent. The North has not the capability. Superimpose that the North risks inflaming the situation with the international community and United Nations and a status quo will likely continue in the near future along the oil band.

East Africa's Future Instability- Causation- Watch Eritrea!

The Geopolitics in East Africa are very 'interesting'. I define that as being 'stable but unpredictable'. Security and stability considerations have a wide catchment. We have previously written a number of articles for Oil and Gas Magazines that outlines some of the key factors 'why'. These hopefully provide that 25,000 foot view.

Mitigating Risks in Africa- TC

Plan for the Worst- TC 

 

We are advocates of mapping the human terrain and ensuring community outreach and liaison to develop robust civil affairs strategies. This will ensure Community Based Security (CBS) whereby local support and 'buy-in' can be achieved. We believe you can’t dissociate countries from each other in East Africa. Indeed, negative security interrelationships exists between most countries - transnational terrorism, weak political systems and ungoverned spaces are but some examples 'why'.

And the Role of Eritrea and Ethiopia? Eritrea/ Ethiopia interplays remain a significant issue. Recent attacks (Ethiopian incursion) continued into March 2012 albeit with little media fanfare. This is largely due to:

1. Ethiopia being a valued 'partner' to the West on the 'Global War on Terror'. Hence incursions are regularly ignored.

2. The Ethiopia/ Eritrea conflict is simply a long standing and tired media message.

Eritrea is fast becoming (become?) a failed nation state which may have implications for Ethiopia and the wider region. NB: Eritrea remain accused of supporting Al Shabaab in Somalia and other anti Western Groups as well as sheltering Ethiopian rebels. Its political instability is well documented and concerns most observers, analysts and commentators.

Ethiopia continue to contribute troops against Al Shabaab into Somalia.This will continue to push Al Shabaab to seek regional support (expect from Eritrea and probably Yemen as well as Sudan?) which could create the preconditions for spiraling regional instability. Already our interlocutors in Somalia have confirmed that active operations against Al Shabaab have driven the pro Al Qaeda group north into the State of Puntland.

We also know from our Nairobi Office that Al Shabaab are openly conducting administration (and operations) into Kenya.  Al Shabaab's influence in recent attacks in Nairobi, albeit low level and unsophisticated, have shown both capability and intent.

Some other interesting neighborhood conclusions have been captured by the UN Monitoring Group at : http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2011/433

Stay safe......  Tim