South Sudan- Austerity or Normality?

We have spent the last week in South Sudan looking at the risks and vulnerability associated with the ongoing violence coupled with the Governments lack of income due to no oil based revenues and significant inflationary pressures.  Through this period there seems two clear, and perhaps even somewhat linked, possibilities:

Possibility 1.  Current austerity measures are not able to survive the next few months. This has the potential to lead to a wide range of problems including humanitarian challenges (some are mooting a 'disaster') and the likelihood that Government salaries are not able to be met. Inside the security forces this could be catastrophic, if soldiers and police pursued other sources of illegitimate income.

Possibility 2. Austerity measures actually do work..... after all South Sudan have, in reality, been managing tiny budgets for many, many years. That said, there is an increased and improved spending appetite inside the Government that will need to be moderated.

One thing is clear. The tiny capital of Juba is conjuring much as we close up on the first anniversary of independence.

Sudanese Spiral- Rhetoric or Reality?

Our team in Juba have watched carefully as instability has developed into conflict in Heglig. We have now witnessed this spread laterally along the oil band. The base of insecurity is spreading longitudinally. The question is whether we will see a latitudinal movement. Here's our thoughts.....

Sudan President Omar Al Bashir's recent (overnight) comments to 'liberate' South Sudan are likely more rhetoric than substance. He is well aware that the international community are looking for an East African 'hero' in a sea of regional instability. The Republic of South Sudan in many ways must be that hero. To that end there is only a remote chance that, even if Bashir wanted to, the Sudanese military would not be able to cross the threshold into Juba. The international community would likely stand (mostly invisible) behind the Republic of South Sudan. Think Libya.
 
President Bashir's commented: 'Either we end up in Juba or they end up in Khartoum. The old borders cannot take us both'. 


The reality is that neither is likely. The South has not the capabilities nor intent. The North has not the capability. Superimpose that the North risks inflaming the situation with the international community and United Nations and a status quo will likely continue in the near future along the oil band.