Kidnapping of Eritreans in Sudan

Eritrea/Sudan: Eritrea's biggest opposition group and the UNHCR both called for urgent action to stop the rising abductions and disappearances against Eritrean refugees and other asylum-seekers sheltered at Shagarab refugee camp in Eastern Sudan. 

Unity Analysis: Excluding unconfirmed cases, the UNHCR has documented the disappearance and kidnapping of 551 Eritrean refugees in 2012 alone, an increase of 500% from the previous year. Eritrean refugees who arrive at the border in neighbouring Sudan are increasingly being kidnapped for ransom, sexual exploitation, forced marriage, forced labour or for extraction of their organs. The kidnapping, smuggling and human trafficking is carried out by a highly organised network that stretches from the borders of Eritrea to refugee camps in Sudan and the Sinai peninsula in Egypt. They are generally transferred to Sinai where they are sold to Bedouins, or they are held for ransom by different militant groups across the network looking for funding. These groups are known to directly try to extort money from them or their families with ransoms reported to reach up to $40,000 USD, mainly from the relatives in the Eritrean Diaspora. It is estimated that these industry generates more than $10m a year. 

According to the UN refugee agency, the Shagarab camp currently hosts almost 30,000 people. The latest incident reported was on 22 January, when armed men abducted five Eritrean refugees from Shagarab camp. 

http://allafrica.com/stories/201302040163.html?viewall=1  

East Africa's Future Instability- Causation- Watch Eritrea!

The Geopolitics in East Africa are very 'interesting'. I define that as being 'stable but unpredictable'. Security and stability considerations have a wide catchment. We have previously written a number of articles for Oil and Gas Magazines that outlines some of the key factors 'why'. These hopefully provide that 25,000 foot view.

Mitigating Risks in Africa- TC

Plan for the Worst- TC 

 

We are advocates of mapping the human terrain and ensuring community outreach and liaison to develop robust civil affairs strategies. This will ensure Community Based Security (CBS) whereby local support and 'buy-in' can be achieved. We believe you can’t dissociate countries from each other in East Africa. Indeed, negative security interrelationships exists between most countries - transnational terrorism, weak political systems and ungoverned spaces are but some examples 'why'.

And the Role of Eritrea and Ethiopia? Eritrea/ Ethiopia interplays remain a significant issue. Recent attacks (Ethiopian incursion) continued into March 2012 albeit with little media fanfare. This is largely due to:

1. Ethiopia being a valued 'partner' to the West on the 'Global War on Terror'. Hence incursions are regularly ignored.

2. The Ethiopia/ Eritrea conflict is simply a long standing and tired media message.

Eritrea is fast becoming (become?) a failed nation state which may have implications for Ethiopia and the wider region. NB: Eritrea remain accused of supporting Al Shabaab in Somalia and other anti Western Groups as well as sheltering Ethiopian rebels. Its political instability is well documented and concerns most observers, analysts and commentators.

Ethiopia continue to contribute troops against Al Shabaab into Somalia.This will continue to push Al Shabaab to seek regional support (expect from Eritrea and probably Yemen as well as Sudan?) which could create the preconditions for spiraling regional instability. Already our interlocutors in Somalia have confirmed that active operations against Al Shabaab have driven the pro Al Qaeda group north into the State of Puntland.

We also know from our Nairobi Office that Al Shabaab are openly conducting administration (and operations) into Kenya.  Al Shabaab's influence in recent attacks in Nairobi, albeit low level and unsophisticated, have shown both capability and intent.

Some other interesting neighborhood conclusions have been captured by the UN Monitoring Group at : http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2011/433

Stay safe......  Tim