Assassination of senior Lebanese Intelligence offical in Beirut

The death of senior Lebanese Intelligence official, Wissam al Hassan, looks as though it was a meticulously planned assassination to weaken the anti-Assad movement. Hassan was close to Saad Hariri, the leader of the Lebanese opposition and hostile to the regime in Syria. He had been tipped to take over as ISF head  - a Sunni dominated arm of the security apparatus supported by SA, Turkey and Qatar – that has been directly involved in logistical support to the Free Syrian Army. Al-Hassan was pivotal in the Internal Security Forces' Aug. 9 arrest of former Lebanese Information Minister Michel Samaha, a close ally of al Assad, over alleged involvement in a bomb plot commissioned by Damascus. He was also reportedly close to former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, Saad's father, and took part in the investigation into Rafik al-Hariri's 2005 assassination, which implicated Syria and Hezbollah.

The attack in Sassine Square was likely intended to emulate the modus operandi of Salafist Jihadists; an obvious subterfuge given extremists have been moving into the Levant in recent months. Blaming Jihadists would give the Assad-regime a certain amount of deniability whilst stirring up tensions and possible retaliatory violence against Syrian-aligned figures in Lebanon. However it's unlikely that Al-Hassan supporters will believe that Jihadists were responsible. That said it may be too soon to determine which group was responsible for the attack, yet all the markers point towards Damascus with an intent to shift the strategic focus away from its central nucleus and weaken FSA supply lines into Syria.

Consulate attack in Benghazi galvanizes the masses

Benghazi consulate attack:

Wednesday brought confirmation that U.S. Ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens and three other American diplomats were killed in Tuesday's attack on the U.S. Consulate in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi. The consulate building was set on fire by protesters enraged over a film made in the United States that depicts the Prophet Mohammed in a derogatory manner. Similar violent protests have occurred in Egypt and other parts of the Middle East and could spread to the wider Islamic world by Friday. Ansar al-Sharia, a radical Islamist group, claimed responsibility for the attack which took advantage of the security vacuum in Benghazi left behind from last year’s uprising. The incident raised questions as to why increased security measures had not been enforced at the consulate following an attack by Islamic militants on the same building back in June. The British Ambassador’s convoy had also been attacked in Benghazi earlier on in the year illustrating an increased security risk to diplomatic staff operating in the city.

Demonstrations after Friday Prayers:

Following demonstrations in other areas of the Middle East and north Africa, it seems likely that Islamists in Iraq may stage similar demonstrations after Friday prayers. The last religious demonstration to turn violent in Iraq was back in May when 1000s took to the streets of Kurdistan’s capital Erbil, demanding swift punishment for the editor of a Kurdish magazine who had printed an article deemed offensive to Islam by local religious figures. Given the US Embassy’s location inside the IZ, protests may take place in Tahrir Square in the capital’s eastern city centre, or similarly, protests may be witnessed outside either of the American consulates in Kirkuk and Basra city.  

New But Not Unexpected- Significant Iraq Security Incidents

The deaths of at least 107 Iraqis in seemingly coordinated attacks eclipsed the expected but still shocking news that Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi has been sentenced to death by a Baghdad criminal court. Another 484 Iraqis were wounded in the violence, which occurred even deep into southern Iraq where such bloodshed is rare. One attack took place at a French consulate in Nasiriyah.

Although some of the attacks occurred earlier than the sentencing announcement, it cannot be ruled out that several of the later attacks were in response to it. Surges in violence have accompanied significant points in the Hashemi trial, and the evening attacks targeted Shiite neighbourhoods in Baghdad. Hashemi is Sunni.

The fugitive vice president was sentenced to death in what many believe was a rigged court decision. He has denied all allegations and insisted the trial was part of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s intensified campaign to marginalize Sunnis. The case was tried in absentia after Hashemi fled Iraq, first to Kurdistan and later to Turkey. Both governments refused to hand Hashemi over.

Hashemi was first accused of financing terrorist activities in December, curiously, just as U.S. troops withdrew from Iraq. The first case, a bombing at the parliament building, turned out to be an al-Qaeda operation instead, but the Maliki administration found another 150 cases to blame on Hashemi.

On Sunday, he and his son-in-law, Ahmed Qahtan, were found guilty for their involvement in the murders of a lawyer and security official. Over a lack of evidence, a judge acquitted Hashemi on a third murder charge. Defense lawyers re-iterated their belief that Maliki had manipulated court proceedings against his political rival and were promptly threatened by the court. If Hashemi returns to Iraq, he is legally allowed a re-trial. Unintentionally supporting Hashemi’s counter-allegations, Maliki had tried to oust other senior Sunni politicians and ignited a political crisis that is yet unresolved. Moreover, at least three of Hashemi’s employees diedwhile in detention, possibly tortured to death during interrogations. Hashemi has frequently accused the Iraqi government of extricating all confessions in the case through torture.

Meanwhile, violence took a heavy toll today. 

At least 107 people were killed and 484 more were wounded across the country, even in relatively peaceful southern cities.

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Threat Warning - Baghdad

Situation: AQI released a statement on a Jihadist site on Thursday warning the Iraqi  government of retribution against recent executions in the country.

Analysis: The threat warning is in response to the execution of 21 people convicted of terrorism charges, including three women, on Tuesday. According to government sources, about 200 more executions are planned for the near future. Amnesty International in June condemned the Iraqi state’s penchant for the death penalty, calling it “alarming.” Ayad Allawi, the secular Shiite leader of the opposition Iraqiya bloc in parliament, said Maliki’s security forces have detained and brutally tortured more than 1,000 political opponents in secret prisons and denied them access to legal counsel. Whether or not such assertions are disingenuous, the facts reported by western and local media speak for themselves, and have led to galvanize AQI into greater violence.

A quiet week following omnipresent attacks across Iraq leading up to Eid, could spell another period of highly lethal and indiscriminate AQI aggression.

The Iraqi Army were put on high alert in Baghdad today after two senior security officials were targeted by militants on Wednesday. An increase in drive-by-shootings and SAF attacks against police checkpoints has forced military commanders to re-posture their units across the capital and cities to the north. And last week the Baghdad Operations Command (BOC) released a general threat warning for the central areas of the capital. Although Friday is traditionally a quiet period as Islamic militants respect the call to prayer, attacks at the weekend can be expected to increase with a significant threat to the capital’s city centre.

Advise: Expect increased security, especially around government facilities and public areas such as hotels, shopping centers, markets, and transportation hubs. If AQI are plotting another attack, they could shift their target to a less-secure location if heightened security makes it impossible to strike their original target.

info@unityresourcesgroup.com

Post 2012 Ramadan - Iraq

Al-Qaeda in Iraq far from out during Ramadan 2012

With the end of Ramadan begins the tallying of casualties that occurred during the holy month. Unity approximates at least 690 civilians and members of the security apparatus were killed during the month of Ramadan. Two spikes in AQI activity, one at the beginning of Ramadan, and the other last Thursday, account for the greater number of casualties. On July 23, 145 people were killed across central and northern Iraq. At the other end on August 16, 128 people were killed. The violence committed on those two days was clearly coordinated. Agence France Press recorded 409 killed.

Last year Unity recorded a much lower tally of 455 deaths. The Iraqi ministries under-reported with 185 killed. Iraq Body count put the figure at 398 deaths.

According to data pulled from the United Nations Aid Mission in Iraq (UNAMI). There were 389 attacks recorded  during the month of Ramadan in 2011. This year that number diminished to 356 incidents. Although fewer attacks were reported, violence was much more indiscriminate and effective in 2012. Much like AQI’s current ‘bringing breaking down the walls’ campaign, last year towards the end of Ramadan, the organisation promised to target Iraq with 100 attacks to avenge its Sunni brethren.

The lethality and frequency of attacks recorded throughout Ramadan 2012 have shown that AQI and other affiliate groups are far from eradicated. Statistically there has been little change since Ramadan 2011, with only more violence and greater numbers of casualties highlighting an ever-resurgent network of skilled bomb-makers, sympathizers and facilitators, all seemingly coordinated to maintain a grip on the downward spiralling security situation in Iraq.

This year the Iraqi government are alone culpable for a continuation in violence. With an American presence no longer censured for an extremist presence in Iraq, the government will now have to make drastic changes to its security policy and personnel in order to ameliorate the dire situation in finds itself in post-Ramadan.

Libya..... Troubling Security Overtones

We saw the first attack using a improvised explosive device (IED) in Tripoli on Saturday ('car bomb').

Our team assess that it was a remote controlled IED (RCIED). This is a concerning development which demonstrates the porosity of the security forces but also a local capability to build explosive devices locally. The levels of sophistication are questionable (1 reported injury) but the capability versus intent balance is potentially troubling.

A continuance of these style of events, with high media payoffs, will discredit the political apparatus and also test local tolerances and confidence.

We continue to monitor carefully.


info@unityresourcesgroup.com

Violent Attacks in Iraq- The Touch Points

Yesterday saw the most significant coordinated violence in Iraq of some time (years). Our Analytical team yesterday summarized the initial details:

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Security: Areas in the central and north of the country have been subjected to a string of car bombings and extremist attacks which have reportedly killed and wounded 100+ Iraqis. 

Reported areas of violence:

1. South Baghdad (Madain district) – Car bomb attack and three IED explosions. 6 killed 13 wounded.
2. South Baghdad (Mahmudiya district) – Car bomb attack against civilians. 5 killed 28 wounded.
3. Baghdad (Husseiniya, (N/W) district) Car bomb attack. 3 killed 31 wounded.
4. Baghdad (Sadr city, (E) district) – Car bomb attack against civilians. 21 killed and wounded.
5. Baghdad (Taji, (N) suburbs) – Car bomb attack against civilians and ISF. 7 killed 28 wounded.
6. Diyala province (Khan Bani Saad, (N) Baghdad) – Suicide bombing followed by car bomb attack. No further details given.
7. Diyala province (Saadiya, (E) district) – Car bomb attack against IP patrol. 1 killed 3 wounded.
8. Diyala province (Tuz Kharamtu, (N) district) – Two Car bomb attacks against civilians and ISF. 2 killed 35 wounded.
9. Salahddin province – Exact location unknown. Mortar attack against IA base. 19 killed and wounded.
10. Ramadi – Car bomb attack against police station. 6 killed and wounded.
11. South Mosul city – Car bomb attack. 17 killed and wounded
12. Kirkuk city – 4 car bomb attacks in quick succession. At least 5 killed 17 wounded

Summary:

The first online statement from the new leader of al-Qaida's affiliate in Iraq claims that the militant network is returning to strongholds from which it was driven by U.S. forces and their Sunni allies before the American withdrawal at the end of last year. The al-Qaida leader claimed the militant group is preparing operations to free prisoners and assassinate court officials. The audio identified the speaker as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who became head of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) in 2010. It was posted late Saturday evening on a website regularly used by the militant movement to make statements. He also invited Muslims to come to Iraq to join his militants. The statement comes as Sunni insurgents, now believed to be dominated by the ISI, have stepped up attacks against Shiites, government officials and other targets, in what is seen as an attempt to undercut the authority of Iraq's government and revive sectarian conflict.

Last week Unity reported the likelihood of repercussions in the south of Baghdad following the arrest of 19 AQI operatives in the district of Mahmudiyah. The car bomb explosion witnessed in the district, coupled with other similar attacks in neighboring areas, is indicative of al-Baghdadi’s statement claiming to have regained former strongholds, and provides evidence that these networks are far from eradicated.

For more information contact: info@unityresourcesgroup.com