Post 2012 Ramadan - Iraq

Al-Qaeda in Iraq far from out during Ramadan 2012

With the end of Ramadan begins the tallying of casualties that occurred during the holy month. Unity approximates at least 690 civilians and members of the security apparatus were killed during the month of Ramadan. Two spikes in AQI activity, one at the beginning of Ramadan, and the other last Thursday, account for the greater number of casualties. On July 23, 145 people were killed across central and northern Iraq. At the other end on August 16, 128 people were killed. The violence committed on those two days was clearly coordinated. Agence France Press recorded 409 killed.

Last year Unity recorded a much lower tally of 455 deaths. The Iraqi ministries under-reported with 185 killed. Iraq Body count put the figure at 398 deaths.

According to data pulled from the United Nations Aid Mission in Iraq (UNAMI). There were 389 attacks recorded  during the month of Ramadan in 2011. This year that number diminished to 356 incidents. Although fewer attacks were reported, violence was much more indiscriminate and effective in 2012. Much like AQI’s current ‘bringing breaking down the walls’ campaign, last year towards the end of Ramadan, the organisation promised to target Iraq with 100 attacks to avenge its Sunni brethren.

The lethality and frequency of attacks recorded throughout Ramadan 2012 have shown that AQI and other affiliate groups are far from eradicated. Statistically there has been little change since Ramadan 2011, with only more violence and greater numbers of casualties highlighting an ever-resurgent network of skilled bomb-makers, sympathizers and facilitators, all seemingly coordinated to maintain a grip on the downward spiralling security situation in Iraq.

This year the Iraqi government are alone culpable for a continuation in violence. With an American presence no longer censured for an extremist presence in Iraq, the government will now have to make drastic changes to its security policy and personnel in order to ameliorate the dire situation in finds itself in post-Ramadan.

The Kurds create a new security institution

The Kurds create a national security council to add to Iraq's dysfunctional security architecture

What is conspicuously clear is the lack of coordination and control various units have with one another across Iraq. It seems even with a plethora of command centres dotted across the provinces, there is very little effort placed in bridging the information gaps that have perpetuated the existence of a number of threat groups operating across the country.

The issue of trust is an intangible that continues to effect the efficacy of Iraq's security forces. For example the Iraqi Army commander of the 56^th brigade based in Basra will seldom share information with the police as they are corrupt and infiltrated by militia groups, according to a media report from the province. The Oil police are also perceived by the security hierachy as a ragtag bunch of ill-disciplined former military men who should not be depended on for anything other than a physical force. Again whenever attacks occur near the oil field area, the army are called into rebalance the security equilibrium.

Interestingly we’re seeing more and more, a balkanizing effect on the military divisions across Iraq. Only recently the Kurds created a security council and are seeking to influence the disputed areas with a greater number of Kurdish commanders. This also remains a major bone of contention for the Ninewa province where infighting between political parties has widened the Kurd/Arab schism and compounded the security situation. PM Maliki is only too aware of this, and his paranoia is working on overdrive. Of course it doesn’t help that since the beginning of the year there has been talk of a coup plot against the premier which has resulted in political imprisonments, the sacking of security chiefs, and of course a military (pro-Maliki) bulwark of activity in areas where the request for separatism is most recurrent.