AQI attempting to exacerbate political tensions

Three car bombs exploded in and around the peripheries of the capital on 22 Jan. In the town of Mahmudiyah, south of Baghdad, a car bomb exploded killing five people and wounding 14 others including two army soldiers. To the north of the capital a car bomb exploded killing seven people and wounding 20 others, both attacks appear to have been targeting Iraqi Army checkpoints. In the northwestern suburb of Shula, a Shiite impoverished area of the capital, a third car bomb exploded at a popular market killing five people and wounding 15 others. No group has claimed responsibility for the bombings although mass casualty attacks are emblematic of al-Qaeda operations in Iraq. Tuesday's violence comes four days after a spate of attacks claimed by AQI affiliate group, the Islamic State of Iraq, left at least 88 people dead.

Yet again this month, Iraq has been subjected to a round of high lethality and seemingly coordinated attacks. The total death toll now reaching 25 dead and 46 wounded according to a number of Iraqi media sites. In terms of perspective and/or analysis, the violence and troubles come with barely three months to go before the provincial elections. Iraq’s first polls in three years, and a key barometer to gauge the popularity of PM Maliki and his rivals. Provincial elections are supposed to take place in April. Yet with violence increasing, and no change to the swelling size of anti-government demonstrations, it seems the Maliki administration is in a zero sum situation, either re-start dialogue with the Sunni and Kurdish leaders (thus re-establishing some government credibility), or face greater civil unrest and the possibility of more violence as AQI attempt to further ignite the political crisis in Iraq.

Post 2012 Ramadan - Iraq

Al-Qaeda in Iraq far from out during Ramadan 2012

With the end of Ramadan begins the tallying of casualties that occurred during the holy month. Unity approximates at least 690 civilians and members of the security apparatus were killed during the month of Ramadan. Two spikes in AQI activity, one at the beginning of Ramadan, and the other last Thursday, account for the greater number of casualties. On July 23, 145 people were killed across central and northern Iraq. At the other end on August 16, 128 people were killed. The violence committed on those two days was clearly coordinated. Agence France Press recorded 409 killed.

Last year Unity recorded a much lower tally of 455 deaths. The Iraqi ministries under-reported with 185 killed. Iraq Body count put the figure at 398 deaths.

According to data pulled from the United Nations Aid Mission in Iraq (UNAMI). There were 389 attacks recorded  during the month of Ramadan in 2011. This year that number diminished to 356 incidents. Although fewer attacks were reported, violence was much more indiscriminate and effective in 2012. Much like AQI’s current ‘bringing breaking down the walls’ campaign, last year towards the end of Ramadan, the organisation promised to target Iraq with 100 attacks to avenge its Sunni brethren.

The lethality and frequency of attacks recorded throughout Ramadan 2012 have shown that AQI and other affiliate groups are far from eradicated. Statistically there has been little change since Ramadan 2011, with only more violence and greater numbers of casualties highlighting an ever-resurgent network of skilled bomb-makers, sympathizers and facilitators, all seemingly coordinated to maintain a grip on the downward spiralling security situation in Iraq.

This year the Iraqi government are alone culpable for a continuation in violence. With an American presence no longer censured for an extremist presence in Iraq, the government will now have to make drastic changes to its security policy and personnel in order to ameliorate the dire situation in finds itself in post-Ramadan.