Pakistan Election
Forecast and Political Situation:
The elections later this year will mark the first time a
civilian government has completed a full five-year term and transferred power
through the ballot box in Pakistan. Past governments have been toppled in
military coups or dismissed by presidents allied with top generals. Although
few expect a coup this time, there is widespread unhappiness with the ruling
Pakistan People's Party's performance at a time when the country is plagued by
high unemployment, rampant energy shortages and frequent attacks by Islamist
militants.
An estimated 40 million young Pakistanis will be voting
for the first time in the upcoming elections, out of a registered electorate of
90 million, this presents an engine for change according to a number of leading
politicians. That said there is likely to be an epic battle by the political
class and parties that have a vested interest in preserving the current
crumbling system and status quo to stop change. One exception to these
elections however is the Army won’t be involved for the first time in a
campaign.
With only a couple of months to go before the nation
heads to the polls, tensions are palpable throughout the political
parties. Party defections have been
reported as personal agendas take over from political objectives. And a number
of prominent politicians have shifted allegiance over the past weeks.
As the government completes its term in mid-March, reports
are surfacing that a caretaker government will be appointed to organize and
conduct general elections scheduled for 17 May.
With the opposition parties still in disarray, the
potential for joint campaigns against the leading party are becoming
increasingly apparent. Unlike the previous general elections held in 2008,
where a number of parties contested the elections on independent agendas, the
upcoming elections present a fairly different picture this time round. It is
believed that no single party will gain enough support to win the elections, so
a coalition government will be formed following a period of negotiation on seat
adjustment and power sharing agreements.
On the external front, the United States’ contemplated
withdrawal from Afghanistan will also cast its shadows on who forms the next
government in Pakistan. Subsequently, there seems to be a state propaganda
campaign done deliberately by parties that want to tell the U.S. they are
moderate, pro-western, and against extremism.
Although electoral reform remains a widely reported
subject in the Pakistan media, the main concerns of the population remain with
the deteriorating security situation, worsening economy, and the fear of
physical intimidation from armed political activists during the polls.
A number of key trigger points have the potential to
exacerbate the security situation over the coming weeks, which could
theoretically see the elections fall into a period of sustained violence.
Those catalysts include an increase in clashes between
ethnic political parties in Karachi; the two most prominent of which is the
Muthidda Qaumi Movement – MQM and Awami National Party – ANP. Any significant
increase in sectarian conflict in Quetta, Karachi and Gilgit, would also see a
regression in the security environment. And increased terrorist attacks on political
personalities could further ignite an already tense situation between political
groups in the country.
Irrespective of these security issues, political tensions
and an invasive militant threat are likely to galvanize the masses across the
main cities heading towards the elections.
